With their losing streaks behind them

2008-04-30

With their losing streaks behind them, the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays can now divert their focus to their still-struggling offenses. With tonight’s total set at 9, over 90% of bettors think the struggles will continue and are backing the UNDER.

One night after the AL East rivals played their first 1-0 game against each other since 1992, the Red Sox will send Daisuke Matsuzaka to the mound Wednesday for the first time in 12 days as the teams continue their three-game series at Fenway Park. The Red Sox (16-12, +3.6 units) have received dominating starting pitching in recent games, but it hadn’t led to a win until Tuesday.

Clay Buchholz and Josh Beckett pitched a combined 15 innings and struck out 22 Saturday and Sunday at Tampa Bay, but Boston still lost both games to run its losing streak to five. It appeared Jon Lester might suffer the same fate after he threw eight shutout innings against the Blue Jays (11-16, -8.1 units) on Tuesday only to exit with the game still scoreless, as the Red Sox couldn’t score on Roy Halladay. But a single by Kevin Youkilis plated David Ortiz in the bottom of the ninth inning, giving Boston a 1-0 win. Over the Red Sox last seven games, they have averaged a mere 3.1 runs per game.

“It’s just a tough part of the lineup. Ortiz and (Manny) Ramirez. They can beat you with one pitch. You want to be aggressive,” Halladay said. “It’s a tough way to lose. You never get used to it.”

Still, Boston has managed just two total runs on 12 hits in its last three games, and hasn’t scored more than five runs in a game since before the five-game skid. In their previous 11 games, the Red Sox had averaged nearly seven runs, winning 10 times. Mark the Red Sox down as 22-9 UNDER after having lost four of their last five games.

Third baseman Mike Lowell came off the disabled list Tuesday after missing nearly three weeks with a sprained thumb, but he went 0-for-3 with a strikeout. Ramirez and Dustin Pedroia have cooled, each with just one hit in his last 12 at-bats, and Ortiz - who walked in the ninth - has gone hitless in his last nine at-bats, with his batting average falling back to .172.

Toronto has been even worse in trying to score runs. The Blue Jays had lost six straight before beating Kansas City on Sunday, and they’ve now averaged just 2.6 runs in their last eight games, losing seven times. In fact Toronto has not registered six runs in a game in last 13 outings and just once in last 17. Ranking 24th in offense is going to land you in the basement of the AL East, where the Blue Jays currently reside.

They managed only two hits against Lester and Jonathan Papelbon on Tuesday, and cleanup hitter Vernon Wells has just one hit in his last 19 at-bats. Toronto is 40-17-2 UNDER after scoring two or fewer runs.

Matsuzaka (4-0, 3.14 ERA) and Toronto’s Dustin McGowan will each try to extend his opponent’s struggles.

Matsuzaka has won four straight starts—matching the longest streak of his rookie season last year—but he was scratched from his start last week and pushed back to Wednesday due to a severe case of the flu. He’s also battled control problems and high pitch counts despite his winning streak. He hasn’t made it out of the sixth inning in either of his last two starts, throwing more than 100 pitches each time. In those games, he allowed seven earned runs in just 10 1/3 innings, walking eight, but earned wins as the Red Sox scored a combined 19 runs.

“I realize that I have to go deeper into games,” Matsuzaka told his team’s official Web site. “The very fact that we have to even talk about pitch counts, I think that’s a problem right there.” Dice-K and the Red Sox are 6-2-1 OVER in his last nine starts at Fenway Park.

Matsuzaka has also won three straight starts against the Blue Jays, even though he allowed seven runs on 10 hits in just 5 1/3 innings against them last Sept. 3 at Fenway Park. He had a 5.18 ERA against them in four starts last year. In the BoSox slim victory last night, they were a slight underdog and they are 18-5 UNDER in home games off an upset win over a division rival as a home dog.

McGowan (1-2, 4.18) pitched a complete game in his last start against Boston, allowing five hits and striking out nine in a 6-1 win last Sept. 17. But the right-hander only lasted four innings last Thursday at Tampa Bay, walking seven and allowing five runs in a 5-3 loss. McGowan is 22-8 UNDER in all games and is 11-2 UNDER against AL East opponents over the last two seasons. (Blue Jays Record)

Sportsbook.com has this contest situated at Un9, with the Boston -168 money line favorites. The defending World Series champs are 28-12 UNDER at home after scoring four runs or less four straight games. Though this trend doesn’t appear to make sense, it’s still true. Toronto is 14-3 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher with poor control like Matsuzaka (more than 2.75 BB's/start) over the last two seasons.

The Red Sox deserve to be solid selection, being 22-6 after scoring one run or less and 12-3 after three straight games with no home runs. Before placing a wager, two more things are important. First, game time is at 7:05 Eastern and can be viewed in local television markets, plus MLB.TV, secondly, these Canadien birds are 10-0 after being shutout.

StatFox Power Line – Red Sox -142

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