Just when you think baseball wagering can’t possibly be any more difficult, the St. Louis Cardinals mount a comeback Lazarus would be proud of. The defending World Series champs are involved in a big series this weekend in Chicago.

2007-08-20

Just when you think baseball MLB wagering can’t possibly be any more difficult, the St. Louis Cardinals mount a comeback Lazarus would be proud of. The defending World Series champs are involved in a big series this weekend in Chicago.

St. Louis has won eight of ten games to be within two games of .500 and trail Milwaukee and the Cubs by just one game in the loss column. Like nearly every baseball team that turns around, it starts with the bats heating up. The Cardinals punched holes in the Brewers pitching staff scoring 28 runs in three game series sweep to move this close in the NL Central. Now they will attempt to leapfrog Chicago and who knows, might end up in first place my next Tuesday the way Milwaukee is playing.

After being one of the hottest teams in baseball for nearly six weeks, Cubs fans are seeing an all too familiar brand of baseball with 5-10 record in August. The only saving grace is Milwaukee has been equally inept. It has been an ongoing problem for the Cubs, the batters are hot and cold and the bullpen is about as dependable as 15-year old. While Lou Piniella tries to paint a picture of being right in the thick of the race, he has played for and managed too many good teams to know all this inconsistency has to stop or once again Chicago goes home come October 1.

This will be a four game series between these long time rivals. The fans more than the players are what makes this such a special rivalry since they can travel back and forth by car in about four hours time and have a good time. The opener has two starting pitchers who have been most noteworthy for being inconsistent in 2007. The Cards Braden Looper (10-9, 5.08) is ground-ball dependent as a pitcher and is moderately successful when he keeps the ball low, otherwise he gets lit up like a sailor on leave and normally is quickly dismissed from his starts. The Cubs Rich Hill (6-7, 3.85) has only won once since June 8 and has had a propensity for allowing home runs, giving up an average of one per start in last 11 outings. In several cases Hill has pitched well enough to win, unfortunately a lack of hitting or bullpen troubles have prevented that from occurring. St. Louis is averaging 7.4 runs per game in last seven outings and is 61-35 against the money line in day games over the last two seasons. Looper and his teammates are 7-0 in the bright sunshine this season, with him posting a 1.84 ERA. Looper has also had two of his best outings against Chicago in a pair of wins allowing two runs in 14 innings. WGN will carry the action starting at 2:20 Eastern.

Game 1 Edge: Cardinals

Game two will feature another Chicago hurler who has only won once since July 1 in Sean Marshall (5-6, 4.25). The 24-year left-hander has been pitching far too often in deep counts and then is forced to come down the pipe without a blazing fastball. The Redbirds are 20-20 against lefty’s coming into the series. Anthony Reyes (2-11, 5.48) has driven more than one Cardinals backer to the ATM for cash, having lost -11.8 units in compiling 3-13 record in all his starts. On the positive side Reyes has learned something after being sent down to Triple-A briefly. He has taken more aggressive stance in not over-thinking each pitch and just throwing the baseball. For Reyes to have success, he needs to locate the hard stuff and blend in the off-speed pitches to be most effective. Chicago is 50-40 against RH starters and will have chances to score if they are patient at the dish. This encounter will be part of the Fox Saturday afternoon package.

Game 2 Edge: Cubs

The only night game of the series is on ESPN Sunday night baseball, which will see the Cubs as a decided favorite with the new 91.5 million dollar man Carlos Zambrano (14-9, 3.86) facing Kip Wells. The Cubs front office is praying “Z” returns to his previous form after allowing 21 hits and 13 runs in his last two trips to the bump. Zambrano is an emotional as they come and needs to keep everything under control to pitch effectively. Chicago coaches need to remind him to stay on top of ball from arm angle standpoint to be dominating. St. Louis fans keep rubbing their eyes in disbelief every time Kip Wells (6-13, 5.24) has pitched lately. For most of the season they understood it would take six or more runs with him on the hill to win. Of late he has given up five runs once in last five starts, giving his team a chance to win. This is the kind of game Zambrano embraces and should come away a winner with a couple of base hits for good measure. Against St. Louis this year, Zambrano is 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA.

Game 3 Edge: Cubs

The fourth and final game will have former American League retreads Joel Pineiro (3-2, 4.25) taking on Ted Lilly (13-5, 3.74), who arguably has been the most efficient starter all season for the North Siders. Pineiro has been a huge lift for the Cards who have been without there best arms all season. For those backing Lilly on Monday, it’s easy to tell how you might do since he is a rhythm pitcher. If he starts throwing strikes, he gets the ball, takes the sign and throws proficiently. If he starts walking around the mound fidgeting with uniform, it could be a long day.

Game 4 Edge: Cardinals

From MLB wagering perspective, the Cubs should have the edge despite the smokin’ hot Redbirds bats. Chicago is 14-7 the last three seasons at the “friendly confines” against the Cardinals and has better pitching match-ups in the first three games to at least win the three game series bet. By the time Monday comes around St. Louis will be seeing third LH pitcher and beats Lilly to leave town with a split.
Sportsbook.com series odds: St. Louis +150, Chicago -190

StatFox Edge Pick: Cubs (first three games)

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